Chapter 9 - Minicase 2

Scenario Planning at National City Bank Aligns IT with Business Planning

In preparation for answering the questions, review the National City Bank web site.

1. One critique of this approach is that some members who are asked to “sell” a specific scenario may not be enthusiastic to do so. Find information in the scenario planning literature on this issue, or e-mail a scenario consultant such as Value Based Management or Global Business Network. Write a report on your findings.

   Scenarios describe a series of possible future, usually inter-linked, events. Scenario planning can be a pwoerful tool for advancing the business plan and for anticipating risk that have the potential to undermine the plan.

   Not all future or present events are pleasant, but most of the expected events in a scenario will need to dealt with in some fashion. Failing to address most of the anticipated events means that the hoped-for outcome of the scenario will not be achieved.

   Management is paid to solve problems, even if caused by poor decisions by others. Selling an agreed upon plan falls into the category of what has to be done whether it is pleasant or not.

2. Can group decision support systems (Chapter 10) be used in this case? Why and what for, or why not?

   The scenario was developed through a three group decision process.

   Group decision support systems could have been used to explore if the participants are being candid in their work. Sometimes group pressure or assumptions about what management wants to hear as the outcome of the process undermine its usefulness.

   Group decision support systems also enable an anonymous vote on the likelihood of the scenario happening or on how well each scenario reflected real-world possibilities.

   But would the cost to set up a group decision support system been worth it? Not if it would have been a one-time use.

3. How can the end-users learn about technology in scenario planning?

   Having knowledgeable IT professionals make presentations or making eading assignments about research & developments of technology companies will allow end-users to learn more about the concepts. The pre-release advertising information about future product releases that companies provide is a good source of information.

4. What IT tool can be used to facilitate this scenario planning process, which was done manually?

   Analyziang and answering “What if” questions is one of the basic techniques of the scenario planning processes.

   Collaboration tools such as electronic whiteboards, visualization or shared documents are effective IT tools.

   Simulation is another tool used to assist the team in answering scenario-related questions.

5. How did the scenario planning help the IT people to better understand the business?

   IT provided all the alternative systems implications of the business strategies.

   The scenario planning process provided the IT participants an intimate exposure to the themes and problems that business staff wrestle with routinely. The IT participants observe, sometimes for the first time, how the businesss staff consider all the things that can happen to the business.

6. Why is scenario planning considered a risk-management tool?

   The scenario planning process consider all the adverse events or risks that can happen to the business.

   By defining mitigation strategies for each risk, the scenario planning process produces a more complete and more rigorous business plan.